Tuesday Tactics: Visitor Sentiment and 2021 Operational & Revenue Forecasting
Providing ideas and insight that can inform agency and partner strategies for improvement of park, recreation and hospitality operations and assets.
Photo Credit: @jluebke & @element5digital
Visitor Sentiment and 2021 Operational and Revenue Forecasting
2021 has arrived and with it the challenge of another year of COVID-19 operational and budget planning for public agencies and their partner concessioners. Part of planning for the future involves understanding what the public is thinking regarding future travel.
CHMGS has been tracking Destination Analysts (“DA”) weekly Coronavirus Travel Sentiment Index reports and highly recommends this organizations weekly webinars. DA has been undertaking statistically valid nationwide independent research weekly since the inception of COVID-10 in March of 2020. CHMGS is highlighting three of their findings from their January 26th, 2021 presentation to illustrate some key travel sentiments that have relevance for parks and their partners.
National Anxiety/Travel Sentiment: Travel requires disposable income and in todays world, a safe travel environment. DA has been tracking national anxiety regarding personal finances as well as personal and family and friend’s health. DA uses a scale of 1 to 9 with 9 being the highest level of concern. Personal Finances at 6.2 ranks at its highest level since June and Personal Health is at an all time high at 7.1. CHMGS is of the opinion that lower costs and drive to destinations should continue to benefit in the Spring in Summer as the American public protects their personal income. The concern regarding personal health will likely shift with additional vaccine rollouts if they appear to outpace COVID variant outbreaks. However, travel to locations that provide for outdoor experiences should continue to remain attractive.
Vaccine Impact on Travel: Individuals who have received or know someone who has received a vaccine are more likely to consider leisure travel in the next three months. This can be seen in the graph below comparing the blue vs. orange lines. It appears that both groups align in the Summer and then greater confidence in the Fall continues for those who have vaccines. Public agencies and concessioners should track the vaccination rates of the states that are providing them visitor demand as they contemplate their demand and revenue forecasts.
Destinations Types Expected: Rural communities, state, and national parks are continuing to see an increase in their desirability as destinations for leisure trips. In the last month, interest in National Park’s has doubled and state parks have increased by 50 percent. All of these indicate that if there is no significant uptick in COVID-19 in Gateway communities, that State and National Parks should anticipate a strong Spring and Summer.
CHMGS has the expertise and capacity to help your agency with market analysis, data mining and revenue forecasting. Give us a call, we are here to augment your teams operational and revenue forecasting capabilities!
